Russia is losing more troops than it is recruiting in Ukraine war, says Estonia intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin amid mounting battlefield pressure

Russian President Vladimir Putin has few good options in Ukraine with his armed forces unable to advance significantly on the battlefield while Western sanctions are chipping away at his resources, Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief has said.

Kaupo Rosin, a top spy on NATO’s eastern flank, told Reuters Russia was losing more men than it was recruiting in the fifth year of its full-scale war, and that a general mobilisation would be deeply unpopular and potentially undermine stability.

“All these factors together are creating a situation where some people in Russia including in the higher levels understand that they have a big problem. Hard to say what Putin thinks about it, but I think all these factors are starting to float into his decision-making,” he said in an interview in Tallinn. Russian forces in recent months have been registering some of their slowest rates of advance in Ukraine since 2023, one year after their full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s $3 trillion economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter. Putin says government measures to boost the economy are beginning to yield ​positive results, and he has repeatedly said Russian forces will fight on until they have achieved all their goals. Rosin said the main reason the financial situation in Russia was “so bad” was the sanctions on the financial sector that were “really, really hurting”, while punitive measures on Russia’s oil exports were also limiting its income.

“I think it’s very difficult choices for them now. It’s hard to predict what they will decide in this current situation.”

Estonia, which shares a land border with Russia, is a leading supporter of Ukraine in the NATO military alliance and European Union, and it has persistently called on its allies to step up pressure on Moscow.

So my message is let’s push forward with (sanctions). This is not the time to hesitate, just let’s keep going,” he said.

No sign of a ‘big breakthrough’ towards peace
Another European intelligence chief, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters in separate remarks that it was clear there were growing signs of pressure on Russia, but no indication for now that was changing Moscow’s calculus in the war.